Why our Predictions Often Go Awry 1.  We have an optimism bias: we anticipate something close to "best case scenarios." 2.  We underestimate how people adapt to both negative and positive events. 3.  We have a poor understanding of probability. 4.  We have a "presentism" bias: the emotions and attitudes of the present infuse our visions of the future. 5.  The future is chance-filled and very hard to predict.