Why our Predictions Often Go Awry

1.  We have an optimism bias: we anticipate something close to "best case scenarios."
2.  We underestimate how people adapt to both negative and positive events.
3.  We have a poor understanding of probability.
4.  We have a "presentism" bias: the emotions and attitudes of the present infuse our visions of the future.
5.  The future is chance-filled and very hard to predict.