The Future of Church-State Law

1. Justice Kennedy (or some other justice) will die or retire someday and the center of the Court could shift--but probably not anytime soon.
2.  Kennedy is 74, Scalia is 74, Breyer is 72, and Ginsburg is 77.
3. The church-state cases to reach the Court will reflect the changing religious make-up of the United States.
4.  The United States is becoming a more secular nation.  Americans under 30 are the least religious segment of the population (1/4 of those 18 to 29 are not affiliated with any religion).
5.  The United States is becoming a more religiously diverse nation (now less than 50% Protestant).
6.  The United States has an increasingly dynamic religious marketplace.
7.  If these trends continue, we can expect fewer cases involving Establishment Clause challenges and more Free Exercise cases involving challenges to laws that allegedly target minority religions (e.g., Santeria, Muslims, Hindus).

Pending Cases
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